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Indonesian plantations sector: Bull & bear factors

At this stage of the market cycle, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) projects a high El Nino probability. However, we expect the real impact of El Nino on companies’...

Bahana TCW Raih Penghargaan Manajer Investasi Terbaik 2015

Siaran Pers   Jakarta - PT Bahana TCW Investment Management raih penghargaan sebagai The Best Asset and Fund Manager 2015 versi Majalah Alpha South East Asia, yang diselenggarakan pada 17...

August foreign trade: No indication of early economic recovery

Oil and gas exports plunged 41.0% y-y, on continued low oil prices as ICP fell to USD43.61/barrel (-16% m-m) at the end of August. On the non-oil & gas exports, the steepest decline stemmed...

Poultry sector: Bottoming out

The Indonesian Breeder Association (GPPU) estimates a final total stock of 3.3bn day-old chick (DOC) broilers this year, while the domestic demand is only 2.44bn, or equal to an oversupply of 35%. At...

Indonesian Infrastructure: Coming from behind

As of 27 August, the Public Works Ministry had disbursed only 28% of its 2015 budget of IDR118.5tn, lower than the 44% level for the same period in 2014, which can largely be attributed to late...

Indonesian economy: Tough times ahead

Private consumption growth of below 5% y-y in 2Q15 and declining imports in July (-28% y-y) affirm our view of continued weak domestic demand and investment. That said, the tight monetary policy of...

2Q15 Balance of payment: In deficit

Better than our (USD5.6bn) and consensus estimates (USD5.4bn), the current account deficit (CAD) improved to USD4.5bn (2.1% of GDP). Services balance improved 6.6% y-y supported by transportation...

Equity market: Scarcity of growth

Given the current weak operating environment for most corporates, the equity market is experiencing scarcity of growth.  With that said, equity investors will be focusing on earnings growth to...

June trade update: Improved performance

June's higher oil and gas exports received support from crude oil export volumes, which rose 10% m-m, with processed oil up 12.8% and gas up 7.1%. This is despite Indonesia’s June crude oil...

Indonesian Metal Mining: Polishing required

The World Bank’s metals price index for March 2015 was 43% below the February 2011 high as all metals tipped into a surplus over this 4-year period in line with weak imports from China, which...